Claim GW2030 - Global warming 2000-2030

The Claim

This is a scaled claim that pays $0.01 for each 0.02C by which the globally averaged surface air temperature averaged over the 5 year interval 2028-32 exceeds the temperature averaged over 1998-2002. If the temperature in 2028-32 is no warmer than 1998-2002, the claim pays $0, and if the temperature is more than 2C warmer, the claim pays $1.

Note: Globally averaged surface air temperatures are currently available from NASA GISS at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/ . The temperature in 1998-2002 was 0.56C warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline.

Payout Summary

Warming (°C)	+.00	+.02	+.04	+.06	+.08	+.10	+.12	+.14	+.16	+.18
0.0	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.09
0.2	0.10	0.11	0.12	0.13	0.14	0.15	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.19
0.4	0.20	0.21	0.22	0.23	0.24	0.25	0.26	0.27	0.28	0.29
0.6	0.30	0.31	0.32	0.33	0.34	0.35	0.36	0.37	0.38	0.39
0.8	0.40	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.44	0.45	0.46	0.47	0.48	0.49
1.0	0.50	0.51	0.52	0.53	0.54	0.55	0.56	0.57	0.58	0.59
1.2	0.60	0.61	0.62	0.63	0.64	0.65	0.66	0.67	0.68	0.69
1.4	0.70	0.71	0.72	0.73	0.74	0.75	0.76	0.77	0.78	0.79
1.6	0.80	0.81	0.82	0.83	0.84	0.85	0.86	0.87	0.88	0.89
1.8	0.90	0.91	0.92	0.93	0.94	0.95	0.96	0.97	0.98	0.99
2.0	1.00

Judge's Statement

All players that have participated so far on 26 March 2005 agreed to correct the note such that it reads as follows:

Note: Globally averaged surface air temperatures are currently available from NASA GISS through http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/ , with a table of values at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt . The temperature in 1998-2002 was 0.44C warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline.

As of August 2009, the table of globally averaged surface air temperatures could be accessed through http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt, the main page being at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.

The Market

Price Plot for life of GW2030

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