YES pays 1.00 if on or before January 1, 2025, the government on mainland China exercises effective sovereignty on the island of Taiwan. Otherwise, YES pays 0.00.
In the following,
For the purpose of this claim, it is considered that in 1995, the PRC exercises effective sovereignty on mainland China, but does not exercise effective sovereignty on Taiwan. The following reasons are cited, and some or all of these or similar criteria should be used in judging the claim in the future:
NOTE: Diplomatic recognition by various countries in the world or membership in the United Nations is specifically excluded as a criterion in judging this claim. In general, de facto considerations shall take precedence over de jure considerations in judging this claim.
The status of Kinmen Island (Jinmen), Matsu Island (Mazu), or the Penghu Islands is not relevant to this claim, which applies solely to the island of Taiwan.
For this claim to be judged YES, the government that exercises effective sovereignty on mainland China must also exercise effective sovereignty over substantially the entire island of Taiwan (with the sole exceptions being foreign consulates, foreign military bases, etc. that enjoy extraterritorial status by international treaty).
If the PRC ceases to exist, changes its borders, or changes its name prior to 2025, the claim remains valid and the term "PRC" above shall apply to its successor government or organization, which is defined as the entity that exercises effective sovereignty over the city of Beijing. That is, in this situation, YES will pay 1.00 if the entity exercising effective sovereignty over the city of Beijing also exercises effective sovereignty over the island of Taiwan.
For judging purposes, the following are cited as historical instances when particular geographical territories came under the effective sovereignty of a different political entity, either temporarily or permanently, and either by peaceful negotiation or otherwise:
In addition, it is anticipated that the following will also become such a historical instance, based on treaties and agreements in effect as of 1995:
The wording of this claim was frozen on September 18, 1995, prior to the start of trading.