As with all the documentation, please send comments (new tips) to kittlitz at ideosphere dot com.
These tips are very much a matter of opinion, and have been submitted by different people (with different player scores :-). As such, some of these tips may be contradictory. In the end you will have to develop your own trading style.
- Do not try to (drastically) change the price of a claim. If you think the odds are 'wrong' just place a bet and let the market do its thing. Sometimes people try to clean out the buy (or sell) order so that they can set their own price (one reason they might want to try this is to increase the value of their holdings). As often as not the price will go back to where it was before and they get burned on the coupons that were not traded at the consensus price.
- If you want to spread your money across several claims, think in terms of money amounts rather than number of coupons.
- Invest heavily in what you believe in, and be patient. It took six months for [my investment in IREG to pay off, and it] is a short term claim by comparsion to many. I just wish I had the same faith in myself for CPB0contributed by Nelson Minar].
- Do not trust the media. I have yet to see a newspaper or magazine article (about which I had inside knowledge) that was entirely factual. Do your own research.
- Anecdote (Sean Morgan): I got reliable information by asking a mathematician for an opinion on Fermat's Last Theorem; OTOH, I lost big on the baseball strike claim, because I listened to a sports broadcast!
- Anecdote (Hurr claim): one player bet on the basis of a news report that a certain hurricane never met the claim's threshold. Another player found a web site with the original data. Guess who made money?
There are some other FX tip sheets on the web: